IPCA 2026 Forecast Rises to 5.22% in Banco Central Focus
Market forecasts now sit 0.72 percentage points above the 4.5% inflation target.
2026 IPCA Forecast
The median forecast for the 2026 IPCA rose to 5.22% in the Focus report released on 3 November 2026, according to the Banco Central. This is 0.72 percentage points above the 4.5% target.
Market Estimates
The update is based on 116 market estimates from the last five business days, showing a rise from 5.20% to 5.22% for 2026, and similar upward shifts for 2027 (4.34% to 4.76%) and 2028 (3.75% to 4.00%).
The Focus report is the first consolidated response after President Lula’s re‑election, marking a change in market sentiment.
The Banco Central’s own projections remain at 5.2% for 2026 and 3.9% for 2027, with a 3.2% inflation expectation for the first quarter of 2028, according to the Copom meeting in September.
Leia Também
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